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Inside The Box Score: 2021 NBA Finals, Game 1

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0, so his offensive role constant is 3. Sometimes good players play only a few minutes for reasons outside their control, and would be worth more because they should be getting more minutes. 860 Similarly, there is also an offensive role adjustment. " His 3-of-14 shooting night in a loss helps shift the momentum of the best-of-seven series. The 3PM coefficient was set to be uniform across all positions. It is based only on the information in the traditional basketball box score--no play-by-play data or non-traditional box score data like dunks or deflections are included. 3 level on defense, since a guard's role is primarily to focus on offense. He had nine points in the first half and ended the game with 11 points and eight boards. Individual and team field goal percentages are derived from these totals. His 32 points were evenly distributed all over the court: 25. 200 13:00 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 2 0 4 1. He found attack mode soon after, and has 83 points in the past two games to put his left knee injury fully in the rearview mirror. 0 are many end-of-bench players Here is a histogram of all player seasons from 1974 to 2019. "He's a great player, he's a leader, he's our point guard," Antetokounmpo said of Holiday. Look at the defensive values as a guide, but don't hesitate to discount them when a player is well known as a good or bad defender. There are live stats services that monitor stats as the game goes along, but the stats aren't official until after the game. "FGM" refers to Field Goals Made - meaning, how many shots during the game not including free throws the player took. Paul delivered 32 points and nine assists to lead the Phoenix Suns to a 118-105 win over the Milwaukee Bucks of The 2021 NBA Finals. As mentioned above: the coefficients vary by the position and offensive role the player plays. Stoudemire 33 11 21 0 0 6 6 2 3 5 2 5 1 4 1 28 S. Since they convert at such a high rate, opposing teams must keep the Suns off the free throw line, so a disparity like we saw in Game 1 is a huge advantage for Phoenix. Tucker had cut the lead to 10, and his reverse layup on the next possession made it an eight-point game just four minutes earlier. Do they have more or fewer assists? A projected BPM was developed in the following manner:• How BPM is Calculated Data Required The following data is needed to calculate BPM:• He from the field, including 0-4 from 3-point range, and forced two turnovers compared to just two assists for Booker. Blocks, steals, and rebounds, along with what little information offensive numbers yield about defensive performance are all that is available. 0, meaning 0 points above average or below average. Vaughn DNP - Coach's Decision K. 208 The coefficients vary linearly between position 1 and position 5. Of course, NBA statistics never tell the whole story. If a player is position 1, the coefficients for position 1 in the table above are used. On the other hand, the Bucks had their when Bobby Portis 133. The "Totals" at the bottom for each team are the combined average stats for the team for that game. 33 and the Bucks offensive efficiency climbed to 111. For instance this Team Per 100 Poss table. However, Ayton was limited to 24 minutes due to foul trouble. 0 is an all-time season think peak Jordan or LeBron• 0 as replacement level for the NBA, measured in terms of points above or below average per 100 possessions. This made the issues with capturing outliers significantly worse, as no player was elite or an outlier for the entire 14 years captured in the regression basis. Wayne, IN Boston Garden, Boston, MA Boston Garden, Boston, MA. 0 means the team is 5 points per 100 possessions better with the player on the floor than with average production from another player. Flagrant fouls are severe personal fouls that draw extra punishment. Visitors Interested in Box Score Data Also Viewed. "I think that's when we are at our best, when Giannis is at his best, it's a little bit of both," Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer said. Finley 13 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 1 5 0 1 0 4 T. Billups 39 5 13 2 4 0 0 0 2 2 4 4 1 2 1 12 L. The Regression Basis One of the unique things about this analysis is the regression basis that was used. Barnes 32 3 7 2 4 0 2 2 4 6 2 5 0 3 0 8 A. The justification for this is that PGs and to some extent SGs do not provide as much value that is not captured in the box score, mostly related to defense. From 1974 to 1977, turnovers are estimated using an approach given in the appendix. In his 18 minutes on the court, Portis scored 22. Prior to Game 3, the teams were fairly even in assist percentage, with the Suns holding a 52. There are limitations on all box score stats — if the box score doesn't measure a particular contribution, a box-score-based metric can only approximate that contribution. For instance the Team Rating table. Fewer turnovers — particularly live-ball turnovers — lead to fewer easy baskets in transition for opposing teams. On some levels, a technical foul -- usually assessed for unsportsmanlike conduct of some kind -- also counts as a personal foul for the offender. He attempted only 11 field goals, which is his other than the game he left early due to injury 7-10 FG in 24 minutes. Ayton led all players with in Game 1 as the Suns big man finished 6-6 in the restricted area and 2-4 outside the restricted area. The regression was generated with the team adjustment part of the fit. 6 5 Michael Jordan 1989 CHI 11. 9 14 Michael Jordan 1996 CHI 9. Special thanks to James Brocato of the Dallas Mavericks for running this Bayesian RAPM specially for the development of this new version of BPM! In Game 1, the Suns outscored the Bucks 44-42 in the paint, marking only the that the Bucks lost the paint battle. The when Holiday scores at least 20 points; they are 7-5 when he scores under 20 points. In addition, post players that pass well are typically better defenders. Lopez and Crowder led their respective teams with. BPM: Appendices: Position and Offensive Role Regressions: The position regression was developed by regressing player statistics on listed positions over a 20-year sample of player seasons, weighted by minutes played. Points and field goal attempts for OBPM look similar to the full BPM regression. Free throws are shot from the free throw line, which is 15 feet from the rim. Hill 20 2 8 0 1 0 0 1 4 5 1 1 1 1 1 4 G. Balkman DNP - Coach's Decision TEAM TOTALS 240 35 79 7 14 14 23 10 23 33 19 23 7 14 7 91 PERCENTAGES: FG: 44. The reverse is true of post players. Defensive rebounds are gathered or controlled at the defensive end. Looking at Results: The All-Time Great Seasons To give a sense of the metric, it is useful to look at some of the great seasons. These count as personal fouls, but are also registered as a line item under the box score. The Suns had 14 turnovers, which led to 17 points for the Bucks: nine by Giannis, six by Khris Middleton and two by PJ Tucker. And the Suns took advantage of their open looks, knocking down 31 of them 47. I feel like it every series this playoffs , that's what we did. Point guards handle the ball a lot and usually generate lower value assists. It measures reasonably accurately what a player did produce in terms of value for a given team. Adding the more accurate game-level data does not have a huge impact but in individual cases can make a difference of 0. 0 is worth, on the market, about twice what a player of VORP 2. The player's raw BPM plus the team adjustment equals the completed BPM. Carter 21 2 4 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 2 1 3 0 5 C. All statistics are translated to per-100 team possessions. This translates a player's efficiency differential approximately into wins, using the conversion rate near league-average rather than that in the diminishing returns area of the Pythagorean formula. The statisticians enter all of that information into a computer as the game is going on in order to produce the box score and play-by-play for each game. In the 2018-19 season, teams averaged around 100 possessions per 48 minute game. Fully linear regression much more robust when faced with outlier data. But he in just 1:43 of matchup time 12. Player box score statistics per 100 possessions. Do they score more or less efficiently? This calculation works off of percentages of team statistics accrued by the player while they are in the game. Some box scores will include a separate column for offensive rebounds, but not for defensive rebounds. Simple Player Rating SPR was developed by Nathan Walker many years ago 2012 and was the first simplified linear metric built by regressing box score stats onto a long-term RAPM basis--in this case, an 8 year data set. It has typically been the case that low minutes players are approximately equal in quality across all NBA teams, regardless of the team strength. Discussing these values:• This bonus accounts for the value of spacing and any other ancillary benefits of shooting more 3s. Steals and blocks are both worth more for the little guy than for the post players. A shot missed when a shooting foul occurs does not count as an attempt. "Their aggression, their defense. 647 points per touch on 17 touches in Game 3. BPM does not include that data and should not be as accurate as stats that do include the additional information assuming they are implemented rigorously! Sequence of Calculation• BPM was created to intentionally only use statistics that are widely available and are available historically. Note that, by count of player seasons, there are far more below average seasons but that when you look at minutes played it is balanced. Chris Paul's debut in The Finals got off to a slow start in the first half, but he dominated after halftime to fuel a Game 1 win. BPM is not capturing what a player contributes. Such critical components of defense as positioning, communication, and the other factors that make Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan elite on defense can't be captured, unfortunately. Individual and team three-point field goal percentages are derived from these totals. Assists are a significant indicator of defensive skill for bigs. Bayesian prior-informed, using a prior that is based only on team quality and minutes per game in the given season. The unassigned remaining credit is split amongst all players that are on the floor. TO Turnover Players most commonly earn turnovers for losing the ball while dribbling, committing a ballhandling violation, throwing an errant pass or earning a charging foul while possessing the ball. He scored just eight points on six shot attempts in a combined 8:32 of matchup time against either P. Milwaukee had a 15-point advantage on 3-point shooting in Game 3 as they from long range. Inclusion of Minutes-per-Game MPG in the regression. The values found were: Coefficient Intercept 6. " Booker missed nine of his 11 shot attempts in the first half with the Bucks committed to challenging every bounce. 8 And the all time defensive seasons: Rank Player Year Team DBPM 1 Nate McMillan 1994 SEA 5. From the 1985 season to the present, the BPM values presented are summed-up game level values. 0 regression works off of per-100 possession statistics. 9 5 Michael Jordan 1991 CHI 10. Jae Crowder shot 6-7 from 3-point range for Phoenix, while all other Suns combined to shoot 3-24 12. Diaw 23 5 7 0 0 1 2 1 3 4 0 3 2 1 0 11 R. The new BPM was developed with these issues always in mind, with a goal of fully resolving the problems. Dampier 25 4 6 0 0 1 2 4 10 14 3 3 0 1 3 9 J. The scale is much smaller for offensive BPM than overall, indicating that much of the value not captured in the box score is on defense which makes sense. " Phoenix couldn't keep pace and the game began to get away in the second quarter as the Suns missed 12 of 14 attempts from 3-point range in the first half. Variable Coefficient Per 100 Possession Statistics 2017 LeBron Total Pts adjusted for team context 0. A long and comprehensive discussion on defining this level for the NBA was had at Tom Tango's blog, and is worth a read. FTM-A Free Throws Made and Attempted These are all the shots made and attempted at the free throw line, either for personal fouls or technical fouls. Team Adjusted Efficiency per 100 possessions. Deandre Ayton stood out in his Finals debut, finishing with 22 points and 19 rebounds. The player is being developed being asked to stretch their skills beyond their current skill level. 7 Then comes the position and offensive role constants. They matter to the team, but it really doesn't matter who on the team gets them. " Coming home appeared to give new life to shooting guard Khris Middleton and point guard Jrue Holiday, who each carried the Bucks for stretches Sunday. The player is not actually that bad, but is having bad shooting luck. 000 26:00 8 12 5 7 1 3 2 3 5 1 2 0 3 1 22. Assists are worth far more for a post player than for a point guard. Older players did not dominate the game the way newer players can, primarily due to rule changes. Jones 13 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 2 C. The team adjustment is fairly simple. To convert VORP to an estimate of wins over replacement, simply multiply by 2. ONeal 25 1 6 0 0 2 2 1 4 5 2 2 1 0 1 4 R. George 25 2 5 1 3 0 0 1 1 2 0 2 2 1 0 5 D. The good news is that they actually shot better on contested shots 48. "He just had a good game going, but the foul trouble didn't allow for him to continue it. Use the selection button at the top left to look at total BPM, offense only, or defense only. 3, so his position constant is 3-2. Thomas NWT - Personal Reasons I. Williams 26 3 8 0 1 1 1 7 5 12 2 2 0 2 0 7 B. He has previously written for publications such as "The Sporting News" and "The Hockey News. "We got better," Antetokounmpo said. This greatly complicates interpreting the value of actual actions on the court--the value of a steal is reflected both by MPG and the steal statistic itself. Calculate the raw BPM for the player. 4, 2008 REBOUNDS Phoenix MIN FG FGA 3P 3PA FT FTA OR DR TOT A PF ST TO BL PTS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ M. This approach is more appropriate when using NCAA college data, since the low minutes adjustment is more challenging. Does this player get more or fewer steals than the other players on the team? Tucker in Game 3, but was held to one point on 0-5 FG, 1-2 FT in 4:42 of combined matchup time against either Khris Middleton or Jrue Holiday. The team adjustment is a little more complex. Holiday insisted prior to Game 3 the Bucks were comfortable having been down 2-0 already in these playoffs -- to the Nets, before winning the Eastern Conference semifinals in seven games -- and would get a boost being on their home floor. Bowen 31 1 4 0 1 0 0 3 4 7 1 3 0 0 1 2 F. " Milwaukee's Big Three was 28 of 51 from the field and 16 of 20 from the free throw line. Almost all point guards would be well below the -0. Chris Paul was dominant in Game 1 of The Finals against the Bucks. Cam Johnson came off the bench and tried to keep Phoenix in the game in the third before Antetokounmpo completed a three-point play and found Pat Connaughton for a 3 to end the quarter. Partner with USA TODAY Sports Digital Properties. 0 C Pts adjusted for team context 0. 00 In addition, there is a position adjustment constant that is not linear between positions 1 and 5. Duncan 38 7 12 0 0 7 8 3 9 12 7 4 1 2 5 21 M. Next, the team sum is calculated to make sure that the minutes-weighted team average is 3. "MIN" refers to minutes - how many minutes the player played in the game. Not including minutes per game in the regression also hampers the accuracy of the defensive estimates. The credit for getting that rebound mostly gets split among the team, rather than all being credited to the player who actually pulled the rebound down. NBA BOX SCORES FOR GAMES OF Thu, Dec. Position Adjustment Constant Position 1 PG Position 3 SF Position 5 C Position Constant -1. 367 Coefficient Variable Offensive Role 1. The regression coefficients were developed to maximize the fit for both offense and defense concurrently. From 1954 to 1974, a simplified BPM is coming soon. Holiday attempted four shots — all from 3-point range — and had two assists and two turnovers against Booker. "He's a great playmaker, screener, passer and he does so many great things. A simple constant will be added to all of the Raw GmBPM values to make this sum properly. Position and offensive role are estimated from box score data, unless the player has very few minutes. Paul now needs 12 assists to pass Steve Nash and 13 to pass Larry Bird and overtake the No. All of the box score data is measured relative to the other players on the team. Positions and offensive roles are still estimated at the season level, but the regression, including the adjustments, are run at the game level. 439 Coefficient Variable Offensive Role 1. At the top of the page will be the score of the game as well as a breakdown of the score for each quarter of play. Position Adjustment Constant Position 1 PG Position 3 SF Position 5 C Position Constant -0. " He graduated from the University of Missouri-Columbia School of Journalism in 1979 with a bachelor's degree. Middleton had 15 first-half points and Holiday connected for four 3-pointers in an explosive third quarter as the Bucks pushed their 15-point halftime lead to 22. 2 3 Michael Jordan 1989 CHI 11. 4 9 Michael Jordan 1993 CHI 11. On basketball reference, this approach is available back to 1985. Obviously, MPG at the game level is just a single data point that could vary widely for a wide number of reasons and is not stable. Sunday's win was the first for Milwaukee in a Finals game since Game 6 in 1974. Technical fouls are usually delineated as a line item at the bottom of the box score. Johnson's emphatic, and-one poster dunk over P. From 1974 through the 1984 season, the BPM values presented are the season-level values. Antetokounmpo finished slightly behind at 77. Because the statistics used in estimating player position and offensive role do not overlap much, it is theoretically possible to have a position of 5. Louis, MO Boston Garden, Boston, MA Rochester War Memorial Coliseum, Rochester, NY Madison Square Garden, New York, NY OT Madison Square Garden, New York, NY Allen County War Memorial Coliseum, Ft. In other words--take DBPM with a spoonful of salt. 0 is a decent starter or solid 6th man• Singleton 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 G. This is not a great hindrance on the offensive side, as nearly everything of importance on offense is captured by the box score only missing things like screen-setting , but on defense the box score is quite limited. Hill 19 3 8 1 3 4 4 0 5 5 2 5 0 1 0 11 B. 0 Receiver Position Constant -0. 1 — the highest marks of any Buck that logged more than 10 minutes. Martin 30 4 7 0 0 4 8 2 3 5 3 3 1 2 2 12 N. The Bucks, who had 54 points in the paint in Game 2, matched that number in Game 3. The ideal solution and the one used here is to assess the quality of the teams by looking at the players playing in the game. Shooting efficiency was also included. The Bucks finished the seven extra field goal attempts 90-83 thanks to their edge in both offensive rebounding and turnovers; they also attempted 10 more free throws than Phoenix 26-16. Field Level Media Jul 11, 2021 MILWAUKEE -- Giannis Antetokounmpo dominated again and the Milwaukee Bucks won their first NBA Finals game since 1974 thanks to a supporting cast that delivered for the first time in the best-of-seven series. 343 The coefficients vary linearly between position 1 and position 5. The conclusion was to establish -2. Smith 26 5 15 2 4 3 7 4 6 10 4 1 0 0 1 15 A. The value is 0 for positions above 3 small forward , but drops linearly to a value of -0. The effect is linear and has been consistently replicated. This is particularly an issue for elite defenders where BPM simply does not recognize them from their box score statistics. This is the best measure of actual value contributed to the team. The beauty of VORP is that like WAR in baseball, it should track linearly with salary. Personal fouls are a negative for both guards and bigs. it's pretty tough to estimate closely. To do this, every player is assigned a standard position value and also an offensive "creation" position value.。

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